The 10 Shifts Needed to Transform Transportation Systems and Meet Climate Goals

Transportation is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions globally. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the transport sector accounted for 24% of direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2019. To limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, deep decarbonization of the transport sector is required.

Achieving net-zero emissions from transport will require a systems-wide transformation. Incremental improvements will not be enough. Fundamental changes are needed in technologies, fuels, infrastructure, urban design, mobility patterns and behaviors.

Here are the 10 key shifts needed to transform transportation and meet climate goals:

1. Rapidly Transition to Electric Vehicles

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is a crucial shift. EVs are far more energy efficient than internal combustion engine vehicles. And as electricity generation shifts to renewable energy, EVs can have zero tailpipe emissions.

BloombergNEF projects that EVs will hit price parity with conventional vehicles around 2025-2030, leading to rapid adoption. By 2040, over half of all passenger vehicle sales globally could be electric.

To accelerate EV adoption, governments need policies that:

• Provide purchase incentives and tax credits
• Invest in charging infrastructure
• Establish sales quotas and mandates
• Impose bans on new internal combustion engine sales

Consumer education is also key to driving uptake of EVs. Many consumers still have misconceptions about limited driving range or long charging times. Demonstrating the advantages of EVs can boost public acceptance.

2. Rethink Urban Design and Land Use

Urban planning and design has a major impact on transport emissions. Compact, mixed-use urban development reduces reliance on private vehicles. Cities built around pedestrians, cyclists and public transit can significantly lower carbon footprints.

Strategies like transit-oriented development, walkable neighborhoods, mixed-use zoning and car-free city centers promote sustainable mobility. Urban growth boundaries, green belts and protected agricultural zones limit sprawl.

Modifying building codes to require bicycle parking, EV charging and minimal parking spots also enables low-carbon lifestyles.

Cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam demonstrate how urban design can make cycling, walking and public transit preferred transport options.

3. Expand and Electrify Public Transit

Public transportation is essential for reducing car dependence. Expanding high-quality bus and rail networks makes transit an attractive option for more people. Free or discounted fares can boost ridership.

Electrifying bus fleets enables zero-emission public transit. Shenzhen, China has already fully transitioned to electric buses. Other cities are announcing commitments to all-electric bus fleets by 2030 or earlier.

Other innovations like on-demand microtransit can provide flexible first-mile/last-mile connections to mass transit hubs. Integrated mobility platforms like transit apps make navigation seamless.

4. Reimagine the Role of Cars

The role of cars needs to fundamentally shift in a sustainable transportation system. Instead of privately owned vehicles, mobility is delivered “as a service” through shared fleets.

Ride-hailing, car-sharing, bike-sharing and scooter-sharing enable on-demand access without ownership. These can supplement mass transit and active modes. Self-driving tech can enhance shared mobility services in the long term.

Micromobility options like electric bikes and scooters work for shorter urban trips of up to 10km. These can replace many car journeys.

Regulations and incentives are needed to manage the transition to shared mobility. Pricing should reflect the true costs of private vehicle use like congestion, pollution and road wear.

5. Build Infrastructure for Active Transit and Micromobility

Enabling more walking, cycling and micromobility requires safe, continuous infrastructure like:

• Protected bike lanes and paths that separate cyclists from motor traffic
• Wide, interconnected sidewalks designed for pedestrians
• Traffic calming measures like speed humps, chicanes and narrower roads
• Bike and scooter parking at transit stations and in city centers
• Complete street design that equitably accommodates diverse users

The Netherlands and Denmark show how high-quality walking and cycling infrastructure allows active modes to thrive. Similar investments must be made worldwide – designed for local contexts.

6. Reform Transportation Pricing

Pricing policies strongly influence mobility patterns. Various reforms can make transportation pricing better reflect the true costs of different modes.

Fuel taxes that escalate over time can help phase out gasoline/diesel use. Road user charges based on distance traveled more equitably distribute infrastructure costs between drivers.

Congestion charges and low emission zones in city centers restrict and price private car access. Parking fees make driving more expensive than other options.

Subsidies to trucking and aviation should be reformed to account for pollution and climate impacts. High-speed rail projects can be supported to shift air travel demand.

Getting the prices right will encourage the sustainable options. Complementary policies are still needed like transit investments, EV rebates and reforms to land use regulations.

7. Improve Freight Efficiency and Shift Modes

Freight transport accounts for nearly 15% of global CO2 emissions from transport and is growing rapidly. Solutions for greening freight include:

• Improving truck efficiency through aerodynamic design, hybridization, platooning, and autonomous driving.
• Shifting freight to rail through infrastructure investments and procurement policies favoring intermodal freight.
• Using more waterborne transport where feasible via rivers, canals and coastal shipping.
• Moving freight to urban consolidation centers and using EVs or cargo bikes for last mile delivery.
• Increasing logistics efficiency through digitization and load optimization.
• Deploying alternative fuels like green hydrogen for hard-to-abate long haul trucking and aviation.

A policy mix of vehicle standards, sustainable aviation fuels mandates, fuel economy standards for ships and procurement rules can drive freight decarbonization.

8. Adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Aviation poses a major decarbonization challenge as electrification is not feasible with current technology. The primary option today is sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

SAF are drop-in fuels produced from biomass, waste oils and other feedstocks. They can reduce lifecycle emissions by 65-80% compared to conventional jet fuel.

Many airlines have pledged to increase SAF usage to 10-20% by 2030. But SAF production is minimal today – high costs and limited feedstocks are key barriers.

Policies like SAF blending mandates, fuel economy standards for aircraft, R&D investments and supply chain incentives are essential to dramatically scale SAF production. Carbon pricing for aviation is also needed.

In the long term, hydrogen and synthetic fuels could fully decarbonize aviation – but huge tech advancements are still required.

9. Harness Data and Technology

Digitalization and data are game-changers for optimizing mobility systems. Key applications include:

• Mobility apps that integrate routing, booking, payment and comparison across all modes.
• Mobility-as-a-service platforms that bundle transportation options under one subscription plan.
• Demand-responsive transit leveraging real-time data to optimize flexible routing.
• Curbside management using occupancy data to coordinate pick-ups/drop-offs.
• Traffic flow optimization adjusting signals based on congestion data.
• Logistics digitization to optimize routing, loading and inventory.
• Micromobility data to inform infrastructure investments and regulations.
• Connected and autonomous vehicles to enable eco-driving and platooning.

Policy frameworks around open data access, interoperability and digitization standards will maximize benefits.

10. Shift Mindsets and Cultural Norms

Technical solutions must be accompanied by cultural shifts. Transport demand can be reduced through:

• Remote work and virtual meetings
• More local living to minimize travel needs
• Shared mobility services over individual ownership
• Walking and cycling for short trips
• High-speed rail over flights for medium distance trips
• Car-free tourism and staycations
• Congestion charges and vehicle restrictions in city centers
• Frequent public transit with free or discounted fares

Awareness campaigns, public engagement, and grassroots activism can all catalyze mass shifts away from car dominance. COVID-19 has already accelerated remote work, e-commerce, and local living in many cities. Lockdowns gave a glimpse of low-traffic neighborhoods centered around walking, cycling and community life.

Sustaining the momentum and attitudes from COVID-19 through supportive policies and incentives will be critical. Transport emissions ultimately reflect human choices and cultural norms. Redefining aspirations, motivations and the status value connected to mobility is essential to enable transformative change.

The Path Forward

Transforming transportation to meet climate goals requires both technological solutions and societal transitions. Key shifts must occur across vehicles, fuels, infrastructure, urban design, pricing, regulations, data systems and cultural norms.

Intensive policy action is needed in the 2020s to set zero-emission transport in motion. Cities are poised to drive the disruption, with early lessons replicated more widely. Combined efforts by governments, companies, communities and individuals can reimagine mobility for a net-zero future

Conclusion

Achieving deep decarbonization of the transport sector is critical to limiting global warming. Transport accounts for nearly a quarter of energy-related CO2 emissions globally, and demand is growing. But transforming transportation systems is complex given the scale and inertia of existing infrastructure, fleets, industries, norms and behaviors.

The 10 shifts outlined in this article span technological and social dimensions. Electrifying vehicles and expanding clean electricity generation are fundamental to enabling zero-emission transport. Developing alternative fuels like green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels can help decarbonize hard-to-abate long-haul trucking, shipping and aviation.

Urban design and land use planning also have major climate impacts through transport. Compact, walkable, mixed-use cities linked by transit systems can significantly reduce car dependence. Rethinking streets for pedestrians, cyclists and micromobility fosters active mobility. Curbside management and centralized logistics help rationalize freight and service movements.

Innovations in mobility services and business models, supported by data and technology, allow access to supersede ownership. Ride-hailing, car-sharing, bike-sharing and other models provide flexible mobility on demand. Integrated platforms simplify multi-modal travel.

But technological advances alone are insufficient. Pricing via fuel taxes, road charges, parking fees and congestion charges should reflect the true costs of private car usage. Targeted subsidies can incentivize sustainable options like public transit, EVs and active modes. Procurement and infrastructure investments should prioritize low-carbon freight and travel modes.

Regulations, vehicle standards and mandates for elements like EV sales, sustainable aviation fuels, fuel economy and truck efficiency are essential policy levers. Raising public awareness and shifting cultural attitudes are also pivotal given the ingrained status value associated with cars. Normalizing remote work, virtual meetings, local living, shared mobility, micromobility, high-speed rail and car-free tourism can all reduce transport footprints.

Cities are taking the lead in pioneering integrated approaches aligned to these shifts. Vehicle restrictions, congestion charges, bike lanes, EV infrastructure deployment and transit-oriented urban planning exemplify measures underway in global cities. Collaborative action by national governments, cities, companies and civil society is imperative to transform mobility at the pace and scale required.

The transport sector is reaching a critical juncture. The 2020s will determine whether a zero-emission trajectory is locked in through policies, investment flows and innovation. Delayed action increases both climate risks and transition costs. Implementing the 10 key shifts outlined here can put the transport sector on track to reach net-zero emissions in time to meet the 1.5°C target. Fundamentally reimagining mobility is an essential piece in building a prosperous economy that enhances access and opportunity for all, while respecting planetary boundaries.