Imagine if the essentials of daily life were all within a 15-minute reach of your home
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? Picture this: You wake up in your cozy apartment and realize you need a carton of eggs or a container of milk. Instead of driving for miles, you simply walk or bike to the grocery store because it’s just a 15-minute journey. No more stressing about early alarms for work or school since those places are also within a 15-minute radius. Even on weekends, when you want to relax, amenities like the gym, cinema, and parks are just a short walk or bike ride away.
Welcome to the concept of the 15-minute city, an urban planning philosophy coined by Carlos Moreno, an associate professor at IAE Paris, Université Panthéon Sorbonne. With climate change looming over us, Moreno introduced this strategy at the United Nations COP21 summit in 2015, the same event where the Paris Agreement was adopted. According to the World Bank, cities account for 70% of the world’s CO2 emissions, with industrial and motorized transport systems fueled by fossil fuels being the primary culprits.
The Evolution and Marketability of the 15-Minute City Concept
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? The concept of the 15-minute city isn’t entirely new, but its marketability and dissemination are. Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo championed the effort in her 2020 reelection campaign, becoming one of the first to make Moreno’s axiom a reality. American cities have also attempted to adopt this model on a local level. For instance, in 2009, Portland, Oregon, set a goal for 90% of its residents to live in neighborhoods where non-work needs could be easily met by walking or biking by 2030. Similarly, Los Angeles’s Livable Communities Initiative aims to implement this model in a region where over 84% of residents are commuters.
The 15-minute city concept is gaining traction at a time when the environment is in desperate need of solutions. A recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that by the mid-2030s, the Earth is set to warm by 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold set in the Paris Agreement. This increase could threaten humanity’s very existence, underscoring the urgency of addressing the climate crisis. Could 15-minute cities be part of the solution? Moreno believes so.
“If you want to reach 2030 with a stronger reduction of CO2 emissions, the solution is not a technical question,” Moreno says. “The solution is, in fact, a new path for changing our lifestyles and our work styles.”
How Would 15-Minute Cities Work?
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? Let’s start with a fact: The 15-minute city model does not seek a total ban on cars but aims to reduce dependency on them. In Paris, for example, 50% of public space was occupied by roads and parking lots in 2021, while cars accounted for only 10% of total trips, according to a Slate interview with David Belliard, Paris’s deputy mayor for transportation and public space that year.
Since 2020, Paris has been putting the 15-minute city theory into practice. This has led to seemingly small changes with significant impacts, such as opening schoolyards to the public on weekends, banning cars on streets near schools, and expanding the existing network of bike lanes and cycling routes.
But is this feasible in America, a country where cars reign supreme? Moreno acknowledges the inherent difficulty but emphasizes that it’s time for a lifestyle change for the sake of our climate and planet. He points to Amsterdam as an example of a city that significantly changed its car culture. After World War II, car use in Amsterdam grew, leading to an increase in traffic-related deaths. In 1971, more than 400 children died in traffic accidents in the Netherlands. Citizen protests and bicycle demonstrations proved effective, eventually making the country one of the most bike-friendly places in the world, with 22,000 miles of bicycle paths. In Amsterdam, 36% of all trips were taken by bicycle, based on 2015 data.
“In America, you are concerned as well with heat waves, with the rising of the sea, with pollution,” Moreno says. “It is mandatory for the American people to change lifestyles.”
The Role of Urban Planners and Strategic Advisors in 15-Minute Cities
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? San Francisco strategic advisor Dan Luscher was drawn back to urbanism in 2019 after studying to be a civil engineer and then working in alternative energy and tech. He started The 15-Minute City Project shortly after as a platform to write and blog about urbanism and what he views as an important development in the space. While the concept isn’t entirely new, Luscher highlights the historical precedents of garden cities in England at the turn of the 20th century and the New Urbanism movement of the 1980s and 1990s. “There’s a long lineage,” he says. “But this particular framing of the issue has gotten a lot of attention because it’s very intuitive and resonates with a lot of people.”
The COVID-19 pandemic served as a flashpoint in the United States for envisioning cities without cars. During the first two months of the pandemic, vehicle miles traveled decreased in some U.S. cities by as much as 75.5% to 88.9%, according to data from the Brookings Institution published in May 2020. “It sort of opened our eyes when cars stopped driving briefly during initial lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe,” Luscher says. “How much space do we give to cars, and what can we do with that space?”
Similar to Paris, working towards 15-minute cities in the U.S. starts with small policy and regulatory changes, such as altering zoning laws to allow for multifamily homes, eliminating subsidized free parking, and reducing governmental constraints that have prevented better-connected cities. Luscher points to Los Angeles’s Livable Communities Initiative as a constructive effort. The group aims to increase walkability and get more flexible zoning approved on major corridors. “They have the right strategy in not doing it top-down, but bottom-up,” he says, emphasizing that residents can take action to improve their city rather than waiting for broader government programs to institute mandates. “If they are able to succeed, then you can say, ‘Well, they’ve done it in L.A.’ No other big city has an excuse at that point.”
Climate Activists’ Perspectives on 15-Minute Cities
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? Given that our future is at risk, can these small changes actually make a significant difference? Twenty-year-old Alice Dubois, cofounder of Fridays for Future France, is optimistic. The political science student at Sciences Po’s campus in Nancy, France, started the French chapter of Greta Thunberg’s climate strike movement to energize youth around climate issues during the pandemic. Dubois and her cofounders saw striking as an “easy way to take a first step” in climate activism.
Dubois still doesn’t have her driver’s license, a topic of much debate within her family. In Nancy, a town near the German border with a population of around 100,000, almost everything can be done on foot or by bike. “I don’t want to have my driving license because that’s a personal choice, and my parents say that I may regret it afterward,” she says. “If we want to change society, we have to change ourselves first. If I don’t make this effort, well, who will do it?”
In 2019, 54% of people in France reported using a car almost every day, according to Statista. The cost of public transit can be a barrier. In Paris, the price of public transit tickets rose in 2023, with a monthly pass increasing by almost 10 euros. However, other French cities are experimenting with free public transit options. A plan to make all public transit free in Dunkirk resulted in a 65% increase in ridership on weekdays. About 48% of new users said they now regularly use public transit instead of cars.
These efforts become more significant considering that transportation is the sector most reliant on fossil fuels. In 2021, it represented 37% of all CO2 emissions out of the combined transportation, industrial, commercial, and residential sectors, according to the International Energy Agency.
While the quantitative benefits of the 15-minute cities model are clear, young people like Dubois and Moreno often highlight the qualitative benefits. “The 15-minute cities idea doesn’t mean isolation or segregation,” Dubois says. “On the contrary, it is a way to reopen our mind and imagination to create better living places.”
For American climate activists like Kevin J. Patel, who began organizing at age 11, the 15-minute cities model holds promise. He hopes it might address some of the issues plaguing American cities, such as air pollution, gridlock traffic, lack of walkability, and poor access to fresh food for marginalized communities.
The Conspiracy Theories Surrounding 15-Minute Cities
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? Like many progressive ideas today, the 15-minute cities model has been hijacked by conspiracy theorists. In the United Kingdom, they argue that the movement is a way to force people to stay in a designated area, stripping them of their physical autonomy and fining them if they try to leave their mandated zone. It’s a far cry from how experts define the 15-minute cities model, but it has gained traction among far-right protesters. Approximately 2,000 protesters descended on Oxford after the city attempted to limit peak-hour car traffic in central areas. Moreno dismisses these conspiracy theories as “totally insane.” He has even been personally targeted by conspiracy theorists, receiving death threats and being labeled a member of an international world order bent on domination.
Overcoming Challenges and Embracing Change
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? Conspiracy theorists are not the most significant obstacle to the widespread adoption of 15-minute cities. The real challenge lies in convincing a capitalist society to invest in something that may take years or decades to pay off. Kevin J. Patel, a 22-year-old activist and college senior, believes in the potential of 15-minute cities to bring about positive change, particularly in low-income, marginalized communities. Patel’s personal experience with air pollution and its impact on his health drives his commitment to this model. He envisions a future where everyone can reach essential services within a 15-minute walk or bike ride, fostering social inclusion and environmental sustainability.
“It’s a slow process of implementation, but we have a motive to really act upon it and bring justice to these communities,” Patel says. Despite the challenges, he remains hopeful that we can step out of our comfort zones and make lasting impacts for our communities.
The Human and Environmental Benefits of 15-Minute Cities
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? The 15-minute cities model offers numerous benefits beyond just reducing CO2 emissions. It promotes a healthier lifestyle by encouraging walking and biking, leading to increased physical activity and reduced stress levels. Additionally, it fosters a sense of community as people interact more with their neighbors and local businesses. The reduction in car dependency also means fewer traffic accidents, lower noise pollution, and cleaner air, contributing to overall well-being.
For urban planners and environmentalists, the 15-minute cities model represents a holistic approach to addressing climate change and improving quality of life. It aligns with the broader goals of sustainable development, creating cities that are resilient, inclusive, and environmentally friendly. As more cities around the world embrace this concept, it has the potential to become a transformative movement, redefining how we live and interact with our urban environments.
Implementing 15-Minute Cities: A Global Perspective
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? The implementation of 15-minute cities varies globally, with different cities adopting unique approaches based on their specific contexts. In Paris, the transformation includes opening schoolyards to the public, banning cars near schools, and expanding bike lanes. In Portland, the focus is on creating walkable and bikeable neighborhoods, while Los Angeles is working on increasing walkability and flexible zoning.
Other cities, like Copenhagen and Barcelona, have also embraced similar concepts. Copenhagen is known for its extensive cycling infrastructure and pedestrian-friendly streets, while Barcelona’s “superblocks” reduce car traffic in certain areas to create more space for pedestrians and cyclists. These examples demonstrate that the 15-minute cities model can be adapted to various urban settings, each with its unique challenges and opportunities.
The Future of Urban Living: Embracing 15-Minute Cities
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? As the world grapples with climate change and urbanization, the 15-minute cities model offers a promising solution for sustainable urban living. By reducing car dependency, enhancing walkability, and promoting local economies, this concept can lead to healthier, more resilient cities. However, its success depends on the collective efforts of governments, urban planners, and citizens to embrace and implement these changes.
The transition to 15-minute cities will not happen overnight. It requires a shift in mindset, policy changes, and substantial investments in infrastructure. But the potential rewards reduced emissions, improved public health, and stronger communities—make it a worthwhile endeavor. As more cities around the world experiment with and adopt this model, we move closer to a future where urban living is more sustainable, equitable, and enjoyable for all.
Addressing the Skeptics and Building Consensus
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? One of the biggest hurdles in promoting 15-minute cities is addressing the skepticism and misinformation propagated by conspiracy theorists. It’s crucial to communicate the true essence of this model and its benefits to the public. Educating people about the environmental, health, and social advantages can help build consensus and support for these initiatives.
Urban planners and policymakers need to engage with communities, listen to their concerns, and involve them in the planning process. Transparency and open communication are key to dispelling myths and gaining public trust. By highlighting successful examples from around the world and demonstrating the positive impact of 15-minute cities, we can inspire more cities to adopt this sustainable urban model.
Conclusion: A Vision for the Future
What Are “15-Minute Cities” and Why Are Conspiracy Theorists Worried About Them? The concept of 15-minute cities represents a visionary approach to urban planning, one that prioritizes sustainability, health, and community. Despite the challenges posed by misinformation and resistance to change, the potential benefits of this model are too significant to ignore. By reducing our reliance on cars, fostering local economies, and creating more livable neighborhoods, 15-minute cities offer a path towards a more sustainable and equitable future.
As we continue to face the urgent threats of climate change and urbanization, embracing innovative solutions like 15-minute cities is not just an option but a necessity. It’s time to reimagine our cities and build a future where the essentials of daily life are always within reach, creating vibrant, resilient, and thriving urban communities for generations to come.
